Poll Shows a Tight Race as Former Campaign Manager Switches Sides
Republicans were counting on New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional seat to be an easy walk for incumbent Jeff Van Drew. Van Drew, first elected to the seat as a Democrat, gained national attention when he switched parties in 2019, pledging his “undying support” to then-President Trump.That was before former engineer, businessman and first-time candidate Joe Salerno won an upset victory in the Democratic primary. Now, a poll shows the race within single digits, and with basic candidate biographies bringing the race to a statistical tie. “Our poll indicates that support for the incumbent is on shaky ground,” said Simon Korn, Salerno’s campaign manager, “voters are reacting to Van Drew’s shift from moderate to extremist, and are looking for alternatives.”
The Van Drew campaign’s cash-on-hand as of the most recent filing lags behind other incumbents in similar districts, making him particularly vulnerable to an upset. Salerno has also bolstered his campaign team with Van Drew’s former campaign manager, Ned Miller, who joined the Salerno campaign team as a senior advisor. “Back in 2018, Jeff Van Drew was elected as a pro-choice moderate who would fight for South Jersey,” said Miller, today, he’s an extremist who celebrated the fall of abortion rights and puts Donald Trump ahead of all else, especially his constituents. Joe Salerno is the opposite of Van Drew: he’s a principled leader who will vote to make Roe. v. Wade federal law, he’ll fight to lower taxes, and he’ll stand up to extremists on both sides of the aisle.”
Salerno benefits from a few factors beyond his own pragmatic pro-business Democratic approach. New Jersey’s 2nd district has traditionally elected moderate representatives from both parties. In his switch to the far right, Van Drew changed positions on several major issues, leading some to question whether he’s answering to South Jersey voters or Republican party leaders.
The change in prospects seems to have taken the Van Drew Campaign team by surprise. Their fundraising has been well under the pace of typical incumbents, and have not begun significant paid communications. They have also insisted that there be no live audience for the October 24th debate, after already pushing the proposed date back as late as possible. The stalling tactic suggests a lack of confidence that Mr. Van Drew will fare well against his opponent.
