Incumbent Advantage Shrinking in NJ-02 as Key Campaign Period Starts
Based on recent races, the outlook for Republicans retaining the 2nd Congressional District looked rosy red six months ago. But South Jersey seems to be returning to its historical middle-of-the-road roots as businessman Joe Salerno pulls even to incumbent Jeff Van Drew. Salerno’s campaign released recent poll results that show the same come-from-behind momentum he used to win the Democratic primary taking shape in the general election.
The poll was conducted for the Salerno campaign by the Global Strategy Group, who has among the most well-known and well-respected polling practices for political races nationwide. The results show that Van Drew’s swing to the hard-right has made him a vulnerable incumbent with surprisingly few passionate supporters. The key takeaways are:
- Voters given no information about either candidate have a much lower name recognition of Salerno compared to the long-serving incumbent. This gives Van Drew a smaller than expected single-digit lead before voters are given any information.
- When voters are given a brief positive introduction to both candidates, the race moves to a dead heat.
- When positions around major issues like abortion and the economy are shared with voters, the projected race goes to Salerno.
These results indicate a race that, at the least, will go down to the wire in South Jersey. For perspective, Salerno started out over 20 percentage points behind in the Democratic primary before winning a narrow victory in June. In order for the Cape May resident to repeat his role as the comeback kid, he’ll have to find a way to get his message out more broadly in the coming months. Incumbents generally have a fundraising advantage over challengers. But if Salerno can do enough to get his name and message out to voters before November, it may force the once confident Republicans to sing the blues.
